Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 9, 2026? — Below 38.1%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-09T16:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 9 → 98 in the last 48h bid 0.980 / ask 0.990 1.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.

Price reached near-certainty: 5d ago
Earliest cited source published: undated
Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.

What the contract requires

Condition. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics is below 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 9, 2026.

Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP)

Form the evidence must take. The value as displayed on the RealClearPolitics website in the specified table at the specified time. The rules state: 'The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.'

Does not count.

Any other approval rating measure (e.g., Gallup, Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight)
Any other time before or after 1:00 PM ET on Oct 9, 2026
Any other row or column in the RCP table (e.g., 'Disapprove' column, individual poll rows)

Deadline. 2026-10-09T13:00:00-04:00

RCP approval average — The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics.

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

No evidence from the sole resolution source (RealClearPolitics) has been provided. All sources are news articles citing other polls, not the RCP average itself. Therefore, the condition cannot be confirmed as met or not met.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the value from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 9, 2026. None of the provided sources show that specific table or value; they report individual poll results from other organizations.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A direct screenshot or archived copy of the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table showing the RCP Average approve value at 1:00 PM ET on October 9, 2026.

Sources it was read from

8 retrieved but not cited

Trump Approval Stuck at 32% ↗

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Donald Trump’s approval at 32%, while 65% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 32% Disapprove 65% Reuters/Ipsos poll · adults

Trump Approval at 36% ↗

A new Winston Group (R)/Winning the Issues poll finds President Trump’s approval at 36%, while 60% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 36% Disapprove 60% Winston Group/Winning the Issues poll · registered voters

Trump approval rating hits new career low in latest AP-NORC poll ↗

President Donald Trump’s approval rating hit a new career low in Associated Press-NORC polling, with less than one-third of surveyed Americans approving of his job performance in the White House. The poll, released Thursday, Oct. 1, found Trump’s approval rating at 31%, the lowest the president has

Red-State Support Softens As Trump Hits New Term Low In Latest Polling ↗

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his second term, driven primarily by declining support among Republican voters, according to fresh survey findings released by Morning Consult. The data show voters are now 16 percentage points more likely to disapprove

Trump approval sinks to 30 percent in new survey ↗

President Trump’s approval rating dropped to 30 percent in a new Pew Research survey, amid growing dissatisfaction with his handling of foreign policy, the economy and immigration enforcement. Sixty-eight percent of respondents disapproved of the way Trump is handling his job, according to the surve

Trump's approval rating holds at record low: Reuters/Ipsos poll ↗

Trump's approval rating holds at record low: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Trump approval rating mired at record low: Poll ↗

President Trump maintained his record low approval rating in a survey released Monday, as Republicans push to ramp up support for their party’s candidates with about four weeks until the midterms. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found the president’s approval held steady at the 32 percent rating from the pol

Trump’s Approval Rating Is about 30% and Falling, But . . . ↗

73%? Why not 95%? 125%?

Adjudicated 4d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.