Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 23, 2026? — Below 39.6%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-23T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 20d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The market resolves Yes if the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' is below 39.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' (specifically the 'RCP Average' row, 'Approve' column)
Form the evidence must take. The sole resolution source is the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' — as displayed by that table at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026. No other table, poll, estimate, or report can substitute.
Does not count.
- Any value at a time other than exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026
- Any value from the 'Disapprove' column or any non-'RCP Average' row
- Any polling average not from that exact table
- Any value equal to 39.6% or above (must be strictly below)
- News articles or summaries reporting the average instead of the table itself
Deadline. 2026-09-23 13:00:00 ET
- Trump's RCP approval average — The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval'.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline has not yet passed (current time is before 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23), and none of the supplied sources come from the sole resolution authority (RealClearPolitics table). News articles about individual polls do not establish the RCP Average figure.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution requires the exact value from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the RealClearPolitics table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026. No source shows that table or provides that value at that specific time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct capture or official citation of the RealClearPolitics table 'President Trump Job Approval' showing the RCP Average Approve value at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 20d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.