Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 29, 2026? — 38.9%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-29T16:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 7 → 93 in the last 48h bid 0.930 / ask 0.950 5.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

Price reached near-certainty: 14d ago
Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-27T02:02:38
Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.

What the contract requires

Condition. The market resolves to Yes if the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' is exactly 38.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 29, 2026.

Named authority. RCP table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' — specifically the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row

Form the evidence must take. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' as published by RCP, at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 29, 2026. The rules state: 'The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.'

Does not count.

Any value in a different row, column, or table
Any value from any source other than the specified RCP table
Any reading taken before or after exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 29, 2026
A displayed value other than exactly 38.9%, such as 38.8% or

Deadline. 2026-09-29T13:00:00-04:00

RCP approval average — The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval'.
exactly 38.9% — The displayed value must be exactly 38.9%; no rounding, approximation, or other value counts.

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The evidence consists of news articles and commentary about various polls, but no source establishes the specific RCP Average value at the exact required time. The deadline has not yet passed at the current time, and the required RCP table reading is not in evidence.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the exact value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of RCP's table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 29, 2026. None of the provided sources quote or show that RCP table or its displayed value at that time.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A direct capture or screenshot of the RCP 'President Trump Job Approval' table at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 29, 2026, showing the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' column as exactly 38.9%.

Sources it was read from · 6 cited

2026 CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS • Donald Trump's approval rating with young men just hit a REC ↗

https://usdemocrats.com/ticker/current/viewtopic.php?t=104522&p=105499 · 2026-09-28

Donald Trump's approval rating with young men just hit a RECORD LOW https://m.youtube.com/shorts/2QGTZBXuLHQ?ra=m Statistics: Posted by admin - Mon Sep 28, 2026 11:47 pm - Replies 0 - Views 1

Trump’s job approval AMONG TRUMP VOTERS has dropped 18 points to just 75%. ↗

https://investmentwatchblog.com/trumps-job-approval-among-trump-voters-has-dropped-18-points-to-just-75 · 2026-09-27

This alone is why Republicans are fucked in the midterms. Anything below 90% at the absolute worst is a death blow YouGov’s September 21, 2026 poll shows Donald Trump’s job approval among 2024 Trump voters at 75% approve and 22% disapprove, marking an 18-point drop in approval and 17-point rise in disapproval since January 28, ... Read more The post Trump’s job approval AMONG TRUMP VOTERS has dropped 18 points to just 75%. appeared first on Investment Watch Blog .

Trump Approval Rating Sinks, Is Growing Discontent With US President Becoming A Major Problem for Republicans Ahead of the 2026 Midterms? ↗

https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/trump-approval-rating-sinks-is-growing-discontent-with-us-president-becoming-a-major-problem-for-republicans-ahead-of-the-2026-midterms-294834 · 2026-09-28

US President Donald Trump's approval rating has plummeted to new lows, with multiple polling aggregators recording net disapproval exceeding minus-17 percentage points. The post Trump Approval Rating Sinks, Is Growing Discontent With US President Becoming A Major Problem for Republicans Ahead of the 2026 Midterms? appeared first on The Sunday Guardian .

President Donald Trump’s approval rating drops to new record low ↗

https://wonderwall.com/politics/president-donald-trump-approval-rating-drops-to-new-record-low · 2026-09-27

President Donald Trump‘s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of either term, according to multiple new polls, as voter frustration over the cost of living deepens ahead of the November midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos survey put Trump’s approval at 32 percent, the lowest of his political career, as Republicans also soured on his...

New Map Revealed Trump’s Approval Rating In Every State After 20 Months ↗

https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/NmWK7c5pDzYrbaBZunUZn9Nsl8hc-WrV · 2026-09-27

DISCLAIMER: This article was first published on September 9, 2026 Newsweek has published President Donald Trump’s state-by-state approval ratings, and it’s not good news for the president ahead of the midterm elections. Citing Civiqs’ rolling tracking poll, Newsweek compared Trump’s current approval rating with that of where it stood when he returned to the White House. It shows Trump underwater in more than 40 states, including every battleground state. “Nationally, Trump stands at 33 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval, giving him a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of minus 28,” the polling said. Just nine states give Trump a positive approval rati

Trump Approval Rating: Below 40% In Latest String Of Polls ↗

https://forbesmiddleeast.com/featured/politics-security/trump-approval-rating-below-40-in-latest-string-of-polls

President Donald Trump’s 39% approval rating in a CBS/YouGov poll is the latest to show less than 40% approve of his job performance—similar to his rating at this point in his first term—with a plurality saying they expect the Iran war to continue for months.TimelineJuly 26Trump had a 39% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating in a CBS News/YouGov poll of 2,193 U.S. adults taken July 21-24 (margin of error 2.7), as approval of the U.S. taking military action against Iran has declined from 44% in March to 39%.A plurality, 37%, believe the Iran conflict will continue for months, 21% believe it will last years, 9% said days or weeks, and 33% said they’re not sure.Trump had a 40% approval ra

1 retrieved but not cited

Today’s Readings: Tue 29 Sep 2026 ↗

1 Cor 15–16 Mark 15:33–47 Ps 91 Pro 25:9–12 The post Today’s Readings: Tue 29 Sep 2026 appeared first on Vision Christian Media .

Adjudicated 14d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.