Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 30, 2026? — 38.6%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-30T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty: not recorded — we hold no price history for this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP) – specifically the 'President Trump Job Approval' table
Form the evidence must take. The value must be taken from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on the RealClearPolitics website at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The rules state: 'The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.'
Does not count.
- Any value from a source other than the specified table on RealClearPolitics.
- Any value recorded at a time other than exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
- Any rounding or interpolation; only the exact displayed number counts.
Deadline. 2026-09-30T13:00:00-04:00 (1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026)
- Trump's RCP approval average — The value displayed in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline has not yet passed (current time is 9:12 AM ET, deadline is 1:00 PM ET) and no evidence from the required authority (RealClearPolitics) has been provided.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the exact value from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. None of the provided sources show any data from that table or that specific time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A screenshot or direct data from RealClearPolitics showing the 'President Trump Job Approval' table with the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' column value at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 13d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.