Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 30, 2026? — 38.8%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-30T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 13d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-26T20:01:16
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The RCP Average approval rating for Donald Trump, as reported in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics, is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP)
Form the evidence must take. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' will be the sole resolution source for this event. The evidence must be that exact published number from that specific table on the RealClearPolitics website at the specified time.
Does not count.
- Any value not from the specified table and row (e.g., from a different poll or a different column)
- Any value recorded at a time other than exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026
- Any value that is not exactly 38.8% (e.g., 38.7% or 38.9%)
- Any value from a different source or a different version of the table
Deadline. 2026-09-30T13:00:00-04:00
- RCP approval average — the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence from RealClearPolitics showing the RCP Average approval figure at the specified time has been provided, and the deadline has not yet been reached, so the condition is neither established nor ruled out.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the exact value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The provided sources contain no RCP table value; they only report other polls, schedules, and general approval commentary.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct capture or archived snapshot of the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table showing the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' column as exactly 38.8% at 1:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
Sources it was read from · 8 cited
Adjudicated 13d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.