Ireland vs Austria
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-03T18:45 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 12d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-01T20:44:15
- Price as shown: not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Ireland wins the Ireland vs Austria professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
Form the evidence must take. Unspecified by the rules; the contract does not name a specific publication, agency, or official source that must report the result, referring only to the 'professional UEFA Nations League soccer game' and the result 'after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties).'
Does not count.
- Extra time does not count.
- Penalties do not count.
- A tie does not count as an Ireland win.
- A game cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away does not resolve Yes to this market.
Deadline. 2026-10-01 (originally scheduled date; if rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market resolves to a fair price)
- 90 minutes plus stoppage time — the result after regulation play, expressly excluding extra time and penalties.
- Tie — the game ends in a tie; this resolves the companion market called 'Tie' to Yes, not this Ireland-win market.
- Cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away — triggers resolution to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Ireland and Austria drew 2-2 on October 1, 2026, as reported by multiple news sources.
Multiple sources confirm the match ended in a 2-2 draw, meaning Ireland did not win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 10d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.