polyrag

← Decided

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026 — Above 4.80%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-30T19:29 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 61 → 93 in the last 48h bid 0.930 / ask 0.940 6.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.

What the contract requires

Condition. The U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year maturity on September 30, 2026 is above 4.80%.

Named authority. U.S. Department of the Treasury

Form the evidence must take. The official U.S. Treasury published daily par yield curve rate for the 2-year maturity as of September 30, 2026, per the rule's specification of 'U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026'.

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-09-30

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

No source from the U.S. Treasury has been provided, and the deadline has not yet passed. The condition cannot be confirmed or denied based on market quotes alone.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the official U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year maturity on September 30, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The provided sources only report market yields from news outlets or data providers (e.g., 4.88% in source [8], 4.9243% in source [7]), not the official Treasury publication. Without the authoritative source, the required form is not met.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

The U.S. Treasury publishing its official Daily Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year maturity for September 30, 2026, on its website (treasury.gov) showing a rate above 4.80% (or exactly 4.80% which would not qualify).

Sources it was read from · 2 cited

Treasury yields move lower as inflation concerns persist ↗
https://jingletree.com/treasury-yields-move-lower-as-inflation-concerns-persist-278509.html · 2026-09-29
U.S. Treasury yields dipped slightly early Tuesday after marching to fresh highs during the previous session amid persistent concerns over inflationary pressures. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgage borrowing, auto loans and credit card debt — was down about 1 basis point at 5.2278%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield, which typically reacts to geopolitical developments, was also lower by 1 basis point at 5.466%. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which tends to move in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, was flat at 4.9243%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions. On Monday, both the benchmar
Treasury yields fall as investors await key PCE inflation reading ↗
https://invezz.com/news/2026/09/30/treasury-yields-fall-as-investors-await-key-pce-inflation-reading · 2026-09-30
US Treasury yields moved lower Wednesday, recovering some ground after a heavy selloff in the previous session. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.553%, after reaching its highest level since 2002 in the previous session. TreasuryYieldDayMonthUS 2Y4.88%-0.002%+0.527%US 10Y5.216%-0.03%+0.461%US 30Y5.55%-0.021%+0.306% The benchmark 10-year yield declined to 5.216%, while the two-year yield was flat at 4.88%. The pullback came as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for fresh clues about the path of interest rates. PCE inflation data in focus The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is due Wednesday, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones
6 retrieved but not cited
US 10‑Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 5.16% as Markets Price Likely Fed Rate Hike ↗
The US 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 5.16%, its highest since 2000, prompting traders to price a 66% chance of a Fed hike next month.
30-year Treasury bond yield scales to highest level since 2002… ↗
The 10-year yield (on U.S. Treasuries) just hit 5.2% ↗
The 10-year yield (on U.S. Treasuries) just hit 5.2% The U.S. Treasury must refinance $9.7 trillion of maturing securities in the next 12 months. That's about one-third of all outstanding marketable U.S. debt. Annual interest payments on the debt will then hit $1.2 trillion.… — HealthRanger (@Health
10-Year Treasury yield hits 5.29% amid 50 bps monthly surge. ↗
Todd Colvin analyzes the continued surge in the 10-Year Treasury yield as it hits a new high of 5.29%, bringing its total September move to 50 basis points—the largest monthly jump since March 2022. Despite the sharp rise in rates, Colvin notes that the CVOL index remains roughly unchanged, indicati
미국 30년물 6% 도달 확률 25%…24시간 새 25% 하락 ↗
미국 30년물 국채 수익률이 2027년 전 6%에 도달할 가능성이 Polymarket에서 25%로 집계됐다. 해당 확률은 24시간 전보다 25% 낮아졌다. 오데일리는 30일 오후 2시24분(한국시간) Polymarket의 관련 예측시장 확률을 인용해 이같이 보도했다. 이 시장은 미국 30년물 국채 수익률이 2026년 9월 3일부터 12월 31일까지 하루라도 6% 이상을 기록하면 ‘예’로 정산된다. 정산 기준은 미국 재무부가 발표하는 ‘Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates’의 ‘30 Yr’ 항목이다. 목표
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Rises to 5.6%, Highest Since 2002 ↗
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield advanced for a sixth consecutive trading session, touching 5.62% — its highest level since the dot-com bust of 2002. The post 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Rises to 5.6%, Highest Since 2002 appeared first on MarketForces Africa .

Adjudicated 13d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.