2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥16%
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $23 traded · market at 2.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥1 | 0.010 | 0.040 | 2.5% | 2027-02-03 | $23 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/El
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.