2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $12.5k traded · market at 5.1%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, | 0.051 | 0.052 | 5.1% | 2027-11-03 | $12.5k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- the Statistical Review of World Energy — https://kalshi.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.