2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Nathalie Arthaud
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $7.1k traded · market at 87%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.860 | 0.880 | 87% | 2027-04-17 expected | $7.1k |
| kalshi | 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Nathalie Arthaud | 0.860 | 0.930 | 90% | 2027-06-30 | $7 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official — https://kalshi.com/
- official state election websites — https://kalshi.com/
- relevant state board of elections — https://kalshi.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.