polyrag

2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $1.4M traded · market at 14%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi 2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 0.130 0.140 14% 2028-11-07 $1.3M

Cross-venue

buyselledgenotionalresolution
kals 0.170 poly 0.186 0.61c $1.19 diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a replacement clause…
kals 0.170 poly 0.181 0.11c $0.28 diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a replacement clause…
kals 0.170 poly 0.187 0.71c $0.44 diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a replacement clause…
kals 0.170 poly 0.187 0.71c $0.48 diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a replacement clause…
kals 0.170 poly 0.196 1.61c $18.89 diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a replacement clause…

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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