2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Josh Shapiro
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $266.2k traded · market at 4.7%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Josh Shapiro | 0.046 | 0.047 | 4.7% | 2028-11-07 | $266.2k |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.049 | poly 0.058 | 0.57c | $1.14 | diverges/low [source]: Polymarket explicitly names a consensus of offi… |
| kals 0.049 | poly 0.057 | 0.47c | $0.94 | diverges/low [source]: Polymarket explicitly names a consensus of offi… |
| kals 0.049 | poly 0.056 | 0.37c | $0.70 | diverges/low [source]: Polymarket explicitly names a consensus of offi… |
| kals 0.049 | poly 0.055 | 0.27c | $0.67 | diverges/low [source]: Polymarket explicitly names a consensus of offi… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Republican Party — https://gop.com/
- Democratic Party — https://democrats.org/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
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