2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $2.0M traded · market at 42%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance | 0.420 | 0.430 | 42% | 2028-11-07 | $2.0M |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.460 | poly 0.502 | 2.46c | $0.83 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a clause stating tha… |
| kals 0.460 | poly 0.500 | 2.26c | $219.84 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a clause stating tha… |
| kals 0.460 | poly 0.501 | 2.36c | $0.35 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a clause stating tha… |
| kals 0.460 | poly 0.502 | 2.46c | $0.98 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a clause stating tha… |
| kals 0.460 | poly 0.503 | 2.56c | $12.82 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket includes a clause stating tha… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Republican Party — https://gop.com/
- Democratic Party — https://democrats.org/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
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