2028 Republican presidential nominee — Josh Hawley
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $13.1k traded · market at 0.8%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 Republican presidential nominee — Josh Hawley | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.8% | 2028-11-07 | $13.1k |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.004 | kals 0.008 | 0.34c | $170.00 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that a repl… |
| poly 0.004 | kals 0.007 | 0.25c | $144.03 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that a repl… |
| poly 0.004 | kals 0.007 | 0.25c | $19.29 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that a repl… |
| poly 0.004 | kals 0.007 | 0.25c | $19.29 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that a repl… |
| poly 0.004 | kals 0.007 | 0.25c | $19.29 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that a repl… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Republican Party — https://gop.com/
- Democratic Party — https://democrats.org/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.