2028 Republican presidential nominee — Rand Paul
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $8.6k traded · market at 0.7%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 Republican presidential nominee — Rand Paul | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.7% | 2028-11-07 | $8.6k |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $18.23 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that replac… |
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $17.65 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that replac… |
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $17.65 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that replac… |
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $18.05 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that replac… |
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $18.05 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket explicitly states that replac… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Republican Party — https://gop.com/
- Democratic Party — https://democrats.org/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.