2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $444.5k traded · market at 10.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.099 | 0.100 | 10.0% | 2029-11-07 | $440.0k |
| kalshi | Who will DSA endorse in the 2028 presidential election? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.310 | 0.330 | 32% | 2028-03-01 | $101 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.103 | kals 0.110 | 0.01c | $0.00 | diverges/medium [withdrawal]: Polymarket resolves based on the sources… |
| poly 0.103 | kals 0.190 | 7.62c | $104.77 | diverges/low [different_event]: Polymarket's resolution is about the e… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Presidency — https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-o
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
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