2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gavin Newsom
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $444.5k traded · market at 9.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gavin Newsom | 0.093 | 0.097 | 9.5% | 2029-11-07 | $449.1k |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.074 | kals 0.084 | 0.46c | $2.46 | diverges/medium [timing]: Polymarket prioritizes a consensus call by t… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Presidency — https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-o
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
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