2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Greg Abbott
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.1k traded · market at 0.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Greg Abbott | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.2% | 2029-11-07 | $839 |
| polymarket | Will Donald Trump endorse Greg Abbott in the 2028 US Presidential election? | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.7% | 2028-11-06 expected | $235 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.004 | poly 0.008 | 0.37c | $226.55 | diverges/medium [source]: Kalshi resolves based solely on who is inaug… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Presidency — https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-o
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.