Blue wave in 2026? — Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $1.1M traded · market at 82%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Blue wave in 2026? — Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 4 | 0.800 | 0.810 | 80% | 2027-02-01 | $1.1M |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.
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