Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $79.8k traded · market at 21%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00% | 0.200 | 0.220 | 21% | 2026-10-28 | $44.9k |
| kalshi | Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00% | 0.800 | 0.830 | 82% | 2026-12-09 | $34.9k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars. rates and series — FRED public API
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
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