polyrag

GA-04 House winner? — James Duffie

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $29 traded · market at 1.6%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi GA-04 House winner? — James Duffie 0.002 0.029 1.6% 2027-11-03 $29

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.