polyrag

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.1%

kalshi · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $39 traded · market at 17%

loading price history…

What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — Below 8.1% 0.060 0.390 22% 2026-10-14 $129
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.1% 0.100 0.270 18% 2026-10-14 $32
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 15, 2026? — 8.1% 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-10-15 $0

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

Recent activity