polyrag

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.4%

kalshi · 9 contracts · 3 deadlines · $23.8k traded · market at 96%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.4% 0.940 0.980 96% 2026-10-12 $14.2k
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — Below 8.4% 0.950 0.990 97% 2026-10-13 $8.7k
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — 8.4% — 0.070 7.0% 2026-10-13 $466
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — Below 8.4% 0.020 0.060 4.0% 2026-10-12 $240
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 11, 2026? — 8.4% — — 2.0% 2026-10-11 $180
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — 8.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-13 $64
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.4% 0.120 0.300 21% 2026-10-14 $45
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 11, 2026? — Below 8.4% — — 1.0% 2026-10-11 $35
kalshi Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-12 $34

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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