Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $5.4k traded · market at 33%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes | 0.320 | 0.340 | 33% | 2026-12-12 | $5.4k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of Management and Budget — https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
- United States Office of Personnel Management — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-pro