How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? — At least 15
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $495 traded · market at 1.6%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? — At least 15 | 0.001 | 0.030 | 1.6% | 2027-02-01 | $495 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- United States Senate — https://www.senate.gov
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com/
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Semafor — https://www.semafor.com/
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- Ballotpedia — https://ballotpedia.org
- United States House of Representatives — https://www.house.gov
- Federal Election Commission — https://www.fec.gov
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm energy — public API
- Axios — https://www.axios.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- official campaign websites of candidates — https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/
- Elon Musk’s X account — https://twitter.com/elonmusk
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.