polyrag

How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — Below 44

kalshi · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $7 traded · market at 0.3%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — Below 44 0.001 0.005 0.3% 2027-11-03 $6
kalshi How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — 44 0.001 0.009 0.5% 2027-11-03 $0

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.