polyrag

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — At least 3

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $0 traded · market at 2.5%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

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kalshi How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — At least 3 0.010 0.040 2.5% 2027-01-03 —

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.