How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms? — At least 57 million
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $14 traded · market at 48%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms? — At least 57 million | 0.430 | 0.520 | 48% | 2026-11-04 | $14 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- University of Florida Election Lab — https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.