Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
kalshi polymarket · 8 contracts · 8 deadlines · $19.3k traded · market at 20%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | 0.130 | 0.270 | 20% | 2027-01-01 expected | $19.3k |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0.040 | 0.970 | 50% | 2027-04-01 | $0 |
| polymarket | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31? | 0.050 | 0.110 | 8.0% | 2026-10-31 expected | — |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.060 | 0.970 | 52% | 2027-07-01 | — |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Oct 1, 2027 | 0.060 | 0.980 | 52% | 2027-10-01 | — |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.040 | 0.980 | 51% | 2028-01-01 | — |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jul 1, 2028 | 0.060 | 0.980 | 52% | 2028-07-01 | — |
| kalshi | Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0.020 | 0.970 | 50% | 2029-01-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.017 | poly 0.240 | 22.18c | $1.11 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- person — https://kalshi.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- official government records and registries — https://kalshi.com
- the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held — https://kalshi.com
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com
- the New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/