polyrag

In what year will the next UK general election be held? — 2026

kalshi · 4 contracts · 1 deadline · $237 traded · market at 3.0%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi In what year will the next UK general election be held? — 2026 0.010 0.050 3.0% 2030-01-01 $146
kalshi In what year will the next UK general election be held? — 2027 0.130 0.190 16% 2030-01-01 $38
kalshi In what year will the next UK general election be held? — 2028 0.240 0.330 28% 2030-01-01 $31
kalshi In what year will the next UK general election be held? — 2029 0.450 0.540 50% 2030-01-01 $23

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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