Japan’s government budget balance in 2026 — Above -1.5% of GDP
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $995 traded · market at 28%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Japan’s government budget balance in 2026 — Above -1.5% of GDP | 0.250 | 0.300 | 28% | 2027-04-20 | $995 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- International Monetary Fund — https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.