MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? — At least 15%
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $35 traded · market at 25%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? — At least 15% | 0.200 | 0.300 | 25% | 2034-01-26 | $35 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago -0.110
- price move 1d ago +0.110