polyrag

Michigan Governor election: John James vote percent — At least 48%

kalshi · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $1.5k traded · market at 16%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Michigan Governor election: Jocelyn Benson vote percent — At least 48% 0.930 — 98% 2027-11-03 $1.4k
kalshi Michigan Governor election: John James vote percent — At least 48% 0.110 0.200 16% 2027-11-03 $33

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.