polyrag

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll? — Above 38%

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $0 traded · market at 36%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

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kalshi Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll? — Above 38% 0.310 0.410 36% 2026-11-06 —

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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