Next German federal election winner? — AfD
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $11.2k traded · market at 84%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Next German federal election winner? — AfD | 0.830 | 0.850 | 84% | 2030-03-25 | $11.2k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections — https://kalshi.com/
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission — https://kalshi.com/
- constitutional court — https://kalshi.com/