polyrag

Ohio Senate winner? (2028) — Democratic party

kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $12.8k traded · market at 46%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Ohio Senate winner? (2028) — Democratic party 0.440 0.480 46% 2029-11-07 $10.4k
kalshi 2028 Senate winner — Democratic party 0.530 0.540 54% 2029-02-01 $2.4k

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.