polyrag

Ohio Senate winner? (2028) — Republican party

kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $5.3k traded · market at 54%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Ohio Senate winner? (2028) — Republican party 0.520 0.560 54% 2029-11-07 $4.4k
kalshi 2028 Senate winner — Republican party 0.470 0.480 48% 2029-02-01 $863

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.