polyrag

Parry Sound-Muskoka by-election winner? — Conservative

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $0 traded · market at 36%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Parry Sound-Muskoka by-election winner? — Conservative 0.320 0.400 36% 2028-08-15 —

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.