Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18) — October 13
kalshi · 3 contracts · 1 deadline · $2.4k traded · market at 24%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18) — October 13 | 0.230 | 0.240 | 24% | 2026-10-20 | $1.5k |
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18) — October 12 | 0.100 | 0.110 | 10% | 2026-10-20 | $645 |
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18) — October 18 | 0.130 | 0.140 | 14% | 2026-10-20 | $281 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- IMF PortWatch — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.