Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — October 7
kalshi · 4 contracts · 1 deadline · $9.5k traded · market at 48%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — October 7 | 0.430 | 0.520 | 48% | 2026-10-13 | $5.2k |
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — October 5 | 0.230 | 0.280 | 26% | 2026-10-13 | $2.8k |
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — October 10 | 0.060 | 0.070 | 6.5% | 2026-10-13 | $881 |
| kalshi | Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — October 11 | 0.040 | 0.080 | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 | $675 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- IMF PortWatch — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 2d ago -0.055