Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 3 deadlines · $1.8k traded · market at 53%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.520 | 0.540 | 53% | 2027-07-01 | $1.4k |
| polymarket | Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | 0.043 | 0.076 | 5.9% | 2027-01-01 expected | $368 |
| kalshi | Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? — Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0.520 | 0.530 | 52% | 2027-04-01 | $25 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — https://clerk.house.gov/Votes
- U.S. House of Representatives — https://www.house.gov/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/
- the New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago -0.135
- price move 1d ago -0.055