polyrag

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

kalshi polymarket · 13 contracts · 11 deadlines · $36.9k traded · market at 18%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Dec 1, 2026 0.180 0.190 18% 2026-12-01 $21.8k
polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30? 0.022 0.055 3.9% 2026-09-30 expected $4.0k
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Apr 1, 2027 0.690 0.710 70% 2027-04-01 $3.5k
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Nov 1, 2026 0.020 0.030 2.5% 2026-11-01 $2.4k
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jul 1, 2027 0.710 0.750 73% 2027-07-01 $1.6k
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Sep 1, 2026 — — 0.3% 2026-09-01 $1.4k
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Oct 1, 2027 0.730 0.750 74% 2027-10-01 $1.4k
polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? 0.110 0.140 12% 2026-10-31 expected $838
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Oct 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-10-01 $800
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jan 1, 2029 0.820 0.850 84% 2029-01-01 $465
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Feb 1, 2027 0.520 0.570 55% 2027-02-01 $437
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jul 1, 2028 0.830 0.900 86% 2028-07-01 $250
kalshi Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jan 1, 2028 0.810 0.830 82% 2028-01-01 $137

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

Cross-venue

buyselledgenotionalresolution
kals 0.030 poly 0.012 -2.00c $-1.28 edge disappears against the real book
kals 0.030 poly 0.012 -2.00c $-0.88 edge disappears against the real book
kals 0.030 poly 0.012 -2.00c $-1.28 edge disappears against the real book
kals 0.030 poly 0.012 -2.00c $-1.28 edge disappears against the real book
kals 0.030 poly 0.011 -2.10c $-0.59 edge disappears against the real book

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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