Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? — Jim Chalmers
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $827 traded · market at 6.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | 0.021 | 0.099 | 6.0% | 2028-09-23 expected | $820 |
| kalshi | Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? — Jim Chalmers | 0.020 | 0.090 | 5.5% | 2029-09-23 | $7 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- parliament or legislature of <country> — https://www.parliament.go.ke/
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- office of the head of state of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- major national news outlets of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Financial Times — https://ft.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- official government websites of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
Recent activity
- price move 2h ago -0.100
- price move 3h ago +0.100