Scottish independence referendum called? — Before 2027
kalshi · 4 contracts · 4 deadlines · $395 traded · market at 0.9%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Scottish independence referendum called? — Before 2027 | 0.001 | 0.017 | 0.9% | 2027-01-02 | $395 |
| kalshi | Scottish independence referendum called? — Before 2028 | 0.020 | 0.100 | 6.0% | 2028-01-02 | — |
| kalshi | Scottish independence referendum called? — Before 2029 | 0.060 | 0.140 | 10% | 2029-01-02 | — |
| kalshi | Scottish independence referendum called? — Before 2030 | 0.210 | 0.290 | 25% | 2030-01-02 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- UK Government — https://www.legislation.gov.uk/
Recent activity
- price move 13h ago -0.180
- price move 13h ago -0.230
- price move 13h ago -0.170
- price move 14h ago +0.175
- price move 14h ago +0.195
- price move 14h ago +0.165