Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13%
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $169 traded · market at 12%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13% | 0.110 | 0.120 | 12% | 2027-10-25 | $169 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) — https://international.tse.jus.br/en
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.