Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 230
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $159 traded · market at 4.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 230 | 0.040 | 0.050 | 4.5% | 2026-10-20 | $159 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- IMF PortWatch — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.