Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 15
kalshi · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $75.6k traded · market at 95%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 15 | 0.930 | 0.970 | 95% | 2026-10-13 | $51.9k |
| kalshi | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 10 | 0.980 | 0.990 | 98% | 2026-10-13 | $23.7k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- IMF PortWatch — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- volume spike 15h ago
- volume spike 1d ago
- volume spike 2d ago
- volume spike 2d ago