polyrag

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 11, 2026? — 37.8%

kalshi · 6 contracts · 4 deadlines · $41.0k traded · market at 98%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 11, 2026? — 37.8% 0.980 0.990 98% 2026-10-11 $39.4k
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 13, 2026? — Below 37.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-13 $531
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026? — Below 37.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-14 $449
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 13, 2026? — 37.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-13 $301
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026? — 37.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-12 $271
kalshi Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026? — 37.8% — 0.010 1.0% 2026-10-14 $60

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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