Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026? — 38.3%
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $2.1k traded · market at 18%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026? — 38.3% | 0.170 | 0.180 | 18% | 2026-10-14 | $1.7k |
| kalshi | Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 13, 2026? — 38.3% | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2026-10-13 | $459 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- RealClearPolitics — https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 14h ago +0.065
- book opened 15h ago
- price move 1d ago -0.030