US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 8%
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $2.7k traded · market at 71%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 8% | 0.670 | 0.750 | 71% | 2026-10-29 | $2.7k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm CPI, Employment Situation — public API
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm CPI, Employment Situation — public API
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 22h ago +0.445